What make a team on the bubble?
Any team that is on seed lines 8 to 12 or in consideration for the tourney is said to be on the bubble. Bubble teams must continue to add good wins and avoid bad losses in order to remain in the bracket.
Four teams right on the cut line are : Syracuse, South Carolina, Missouri and Marquette
Syracuse: Best record, best RPi Best SOS but 0 quality wins and 1 bad loss
South Carolina: Quality wins and 3 tier 1 wins including Tennessee
Missouri: Quality wins and decent SOS
Marquette: Seton Hall as best win is just ok, and only 2 quality wins with bad SOS
We had Syracuse and Soutn Carolina in on Monday due to record and SOS. South Carolina because of the two solid wins listed. We have been discussing Marquette as a replace ment for 1 of the two but are hesitant due to SOS. After deeper look, it may be Missouri and South Carolina from this group.
We can extend the bubble analysis to teams above this group and below. Does Houston and Texas A&M have resume's good enough to stay. What about Georgia, a team that is out, do they need consideration.
A lot of bubble teams make this a consistent debate.
by Evan Fritz- Bracketologist
Virginia has finally set their season in the right direction with a huge win over Duke on Saturday. The Cavaliers have now improved their overall profile, and as a result they are now moved to the second overall seed in the nation. We still do have some concerns about the strength of schedule as we head for the back stretch of the season.
Things we like about UVA include the fact that they have some good road wins including Duke and Virginia Tech. Plus a win against North Carolina at home. Virginia is 10-1 vs the top 2 tiers and has no bad losses. Being ranked number one in RPI is a huge plus.
There are a few problems that have risen for their schedule though. UVA has a very weak home schedule the rest of the season with only one Tier 1 team at home. Road games of interest include @ FSU, @Miami, and @Louisville. With only a handful of good wins available, Virginia leaves an opening for other teams to gain position. It will be instrumental for UVA to win most of their games if they really want that one seed.
Let's take a look at the BIG EAST!
Villanova and Xavier are locks at this time. They will be in the top four seed lines for sure. Seton Hall and Creighton are in good position and should be in. Creighton's Non-conference SOS is a huge issue should they lose several games. BIG EAST bubble teams would include Providence, Butler and Marquette.
Why is Marquette below Butler? Good Question. Butler has a quality win against Villanova that is a lot better than any Marquette win.
Outlook: The BIG EAST is a 6-7 bid conference. We believe that Marquette has a decent chance of making the bracket. In our committee there is a lot of discussion about 3 or 4 teams in our bracket that should be out instead of Marquette. These seeds can change quickly.
by Joe Perry
During our weekly Thursday morning meeting this week, half of our group was determining seeds 5-8 while the other half was looking at the bubble teams, as in who was in and who was out. As the bubble group looked at the individual teams’ stats and resumés and decided yay or nay on whether they should be in or not, they eventually came down to two teams with one spot left. The teams were Kansas State and Washington.
Kansas State- 15-5 overall, 2-4 in tier 1, 3-0 in tier 2, 1 bad loss and best win vs. Oklahoma
Washington- 14-6 overall, 3-3 in tier 1, 1-2 in tier 2, 1 bad loss and best win vs. Kansas
When you look at their recent games, Kansas State would be an easy shoo in. In the past 10 days, they beat Oklahoma and TCU at home, who are both top 20 in RPI. They also got a tier 2 win on the road against Baylor. However, when you look at the season statistics, Oklahoma and TCU are Kansas State’s only tier 1 wins. Washington has 3 tier 1 wins: Colorado, USC and Kansas, the latter of which beat Kansas State. Furthermore, Washington’s SOS (Strength Of Schedule) is 56 in Div. 1 and 58 in Div. 1 non-conference, whereas Kansas State’s SOS is 101 in Div. 1 and 334 in Div. non-conference. So, the bubble group chose to put Washington in that final spot.
If you are a Kansas State fan, don’t get down on your team. They’re on a hot streak, and they have an opportunity to prove themselves this coming week as they play both Kansas and West Virginia. So long and good luck!
On Thursday night, we got an up close and personal look at the Michigan vs Purdue game in Mackey Arena. Purdue defeated Michigan 92-88 in a game that saw both teams shoot over 60% from the field. The offenses were operating at full capacity. Purdue senior Vince Edwards after the game said, "Basketball is a game of runs." Well, this one was one huge run from the tip. The Boilers were able to pull out the win because they were able to slow down the Wolverines during a late game stretch of 6 possessions.
What makes a #1 seed? A balanced scoring attack, solid defense and senior leadership. A #1 seed can win games when one aspect of their game is off for a night. Thursday night the Boilermaker defense struggled, but it did not affect their offense. "It's a sign of maturity when your team doesn't allow defensive struggles to affect them on the offensive end," Matt Painter said in a rather happy post game interview.
Purdue can score in many ways. Led by Vince Edwards' career high 30 points, the Boilers were tough to guard. Michigan came into the game wanting to shut down Purdue's perimeter game. However, there is Isaac Haas to deal with in the post. Haas added 24 points to the winning effort last night. Coach Beilein of Michigan said, "It's hard to guard a team with 5 pure shooters and that Big inside." The balanced attack poses fits for Purdue's opponents.
Defense. Purdue had one of its toughest defensive games of the season. Credit John Beilein, a class man and coach. Painter on Beilein, "I always learn something when playing a Beilein coached team, just don't want it to happen in a loss." Despite the excellent Michigan offense, Purdue was able to find enough stops in the last 7 minutes to win the game. This team can guard and guard well.
In a day of early entrants and transfers, Purdue is blessed with a senior laden team that has spent a lot of time on campus working toward this season. It shows on the floor, and it shows when you get a chance to listen in the press room. Vince Edwards and Isaac Haas both talked about the game in a team fashion, by answering personal questions in a mature way. "This is why you come to a BIG 10 campus, to play for a school with a great atmosphere," stated Vince Edwards. Haas added, "I believe we are the best team in the nation." This type of leadership is hard to come by in today's NCAA. Purdue has it!
Scoring, defense, senior leadership - Purdue has all three. We at Delphi Bracketology rank the teams on data and stats. The eye test is not something we use a lot. Thursday night, however, we learned what a number 1 seed looked like. Still work to do, things can change, but right now the Purdue Boilermakers may just be what Isaac Haas believes. The best team in the nation.
Who is in and who is out? This is what the bubble is for the NCAA men's basketball tournament selection. The difference between teams in and out can be very minimal. Teams on the bubble can be found in seed lines 8-12 and are teams that are at-large teams. Teams in this range must continue to win games and build their resume. Teams currently not in the bracket also must keep winning to have a chance.
Here are the last 10 teams in our current
The first teams out include
North Carolina State
Houston and Kansas St have a few Tier 1 wins but their non-conference schedule is weak. Washington has 2 bad losses that keep them deep on the bubble. We have Syracuse in simply because they do not have any bad losses. The issue is trying to figure out what this year's committee will value as far as criteria.
Georgia dropped out after a home loss to Arkansas. The non-conference SOS is a huge problem for the Bulldogs. The SOS issue is big for the teams out of our bracket. Most of the teams listed have a combination of bad losses and bad SOS. These teams need to win several in a row.
Teams we are watching that are out of bracket include- NC State (huge wins), Western Kentucky, Middle Tennesee and Boise St (mid majors with limited chances for good wins), Any SEC team as the conference is a lot stronger this year. The teams that win down the stretch will have a chance.
Send us your bubble questions on twitter @delphibrackets and we will try to let you know what is happening.
Tuesday Team of the Week- Kansas St.
The Wildcats have won three games in a row and these were not just any games. They defeated Oklahoma and TCU at home and then traveled to Baylor and won. These wins have greatly improved their resume.
Kanas State now sits with
15-5 overall 5-3 conference
Tier 1 2-4
Tier 2 2-0
Tier 3 4-1
Tier 4 7-0
Non conf SOS 334
What we like about Kansas St- Quality wins vs Oklahoma & TCU. 4-4 record in top 2 tiers
Tier 3 loss to a decent Tulsa team on neutral court. Clase 2 point loss to Arizona St
What we don't like about Kansas St- Non conference SOS in 300's. Didn't schedule tough and was 10-2 in those games.
Where we see the Wildcats- As of now they are on our first four out but under consideration to move in on Friday's update.
What's ahead: A huge week ahead for the Wildcats- A BIG 12/SEC showdown game against fellow bubble team Georgia at home followed by a home vs Kansas and a road game @ West Virginia. The Wildcats would love to avenge a 1 point loss to the Jayhawks at Kansas earlier. Kansas St msut win 1 of these 3 games to remain on bubble. Win 2 and the resume looks a lot better.
Kansas St is our Tuesday Team of the week- Winning the last three has been good. Where will this team be in a week?
Today we take a look at the BIG 10.
There are currently four BIG 10 teams in our bracket.
Purdue 1 seed
Michigan St 5 seed
Ohio St 5 seed
Michigan 9 seed
Three other teams are in consideration
This is looking like a four bid conference at this point.
Purdue- outstanding resume with 8-2 in tier 1 & 2 tiers and no bad losses. Lock for tournament but must fight off several teams to hold onto the 1 seed. The issue for Purdue is lack of quality opponents remaining on the schedule. They could win a lot and still get passed up. One loss to a sub 100 RPI team and they could lose the 1 seed.
Michigan St- A better team on the court than with their resume. The Spartans sit at 5-3 in good wins with only 1 tier 1 win. We believe that their reputation is keeping them on the 5 line. Their resume may actually be that of a 7 seed and Non-conference SOS at 179 doesn't help. They have the same problems as Purdue in improving their resume. Highly likely tournament team unless a free fall happens.
Ohio St- Interesting resume. The Buckeyes are 8-4 in good wins but also only have 1 tier 1 win. Thanks BIG 10, but opportunities to add to that number are slim. They have strong SOS numbers and at 17-4 are our last 5 seed. They like MSU may have a resume more fit for a 7 seed. We believe that Ohio St barring a big losing streak will make the tourney
Michigan- 4-5 in top wins with a horrible non-conference SOS of 210 is keeping the Wolverines from a higher seed. They must find some wins down the road to maintain this position. They have only 4 games remaining against top 100 teams. Michigan is on the bubble.
Bubble Teams out of bracket:
Maryland- 1-6 in Tier 1 wins no bad losses. Weak non-conference schedule of 182 keeps them out of tourney as of now. Road wins and winning a few of the four remaining top 100 games is a must
Nebraska- 3-7 in top wins with 0 tier 1 wins. Non conference SOS of 241. An almost must win for the Cornhuskers on road vs Ohio St on Jan 22. Long shot to make tourney
Minnesota- 3-7 in top wins with 2 tier 1 wins. Non conference SOS at 169. With only three top 100 wins left, the Gophers are a long shot to make the tourney
The BIG 10 bubble teams must get to 20 wins but also add a few quality wins in order to get in. We believe Maryland, Minnesota and Nebraska in that order. We predict only 4 BIG 10 teams to make the tourney. Five at most. Tough year for this conference.
This week the last #1 seed was a topic of debate as our committee met on Thursday. Half of our group wanted Virginia and the other half wanted Kansas. We ultimately went with Kansas. Why?
Virginia's resume: 4th in RPI, 17-1 overall record, 2-1 in tier 1, 5-0 in tier 2 with no bad losses RPI wise- Best win was home vs North Carolina
Kansas' resume: 7th in RPi, 15-3 overall, 6-2 in tier 1, 3-1 in tier 2, no bad losses RPI wise- Best win Kentucky on Neutral site but also beat West Virginia on road.
So why Kansas? We believe who you beat and where you beat them is most important. Only bad losses may hinder a seed. Despite Virginia's better record and lead in ACC, we believe that Kansas has more wins and better quality wins. Virginia lost at West Virginia while Kansas did not. Kansas 9 tier 1 & 2 wins is better than Virginia's 7, and most of Kansas' wins are higher RPI. Neither team has any bad losses and despite Kansas losing some home games, they were to good teams. Kansas was our choice.
This is a good guess right now. Anyone in the top 8 (1 & 2 seeds) can put a winning streak together and move to the 1 seed line. Keep watching! Good luck to your favorite team.
Hello hoop fans. Now that the college football season is over, a lot of attention will be focused on college basketball. In recent years, bracketology, the science of predicting the bracket has become more mainstream. We here at Delphi Bracketology have been involved for the last four years.
The process that the NCAA uses is not a clear cut process. Each year a committee of athletic administrators is assigned the task of watching games and evaluating data. This data consists of wins and losses and ratings formulas. Bracketology thus, tries to replicate this committee.
Delphi Bracketology is a group of 11 students and 4 teachers who meet each week to discuss and work on predicting the bracket. We use the following procedures to make our selections.
1. Each week we start from scratch- comparing teams data as it stands currently
We do not attempt to predict any future results. We operate on a snap shot mentality. If the bracket were formed today what would it look like.
2. We download RPI data to a spreadsheet for sorting
3. We evaluate the following criteria
A. Overall record and RPI ranking- We only consider teams in top 100 RPI
B. Tier 1 wins ( use to be top 50 RPI, now is RPI wins based on location of games)
C. Tier 2 wins
D. Tier 3 & 4 losses- bad losses
E. Strength of Schedule
F. KenPom rating and other mathematical formulas
4. We select the 32 conference leaders as the automatic qualifiers. Then select the 36 at large teams
5. Teams are compared to each other and ranked 1-68. After ranking we then "scrub" teams. We compare team 12 to team 13 by looking deeper at the quality of wins.
A win or a loss in a particular game may or may not affect seeding. It depends on what happens to other teams as well. Another important note is that RPI changes daily and what is a good win one week may change the next week due to changes in the RPI.
This is a quick explanation of how our group selects the teams for seeding. We have had some success in the last two years in the bracketmatrix.com competition, finishing 1st in 2016 and 14th in 2017 out of over 150 entrants.
We are sure that our followers may have questions or complaints. We will be glad to discuss on twitter @delphibrackets. Happy college hoops season. May your team be seeded well